Chavismo: the beginning of the end is here

Picture this: "Nicolas Maduro didn't recognise yesterday's electoral results" is no longer part of the conversation. Imagine "With 87% of votes counted, Maria Corina Machado won a landslide in Venezuela." This is today the new reality, a reality that took the U.S. military might to be established. This morning, every last crime boss within Chavismo knows U.S. forces can come at any point, land anywhere in the country however guarded, snatch you in the dead of night, and ship you to America looking all dishevelled and frightened. There's no recourse, no help available, no militia or colectivos, no Cuban intelligence and Wagner operative that can save you. If Uncle Sam decides that your time is up, that's it, you're done, it's over. Nicolas Maduro's regime was a paper tiger and Venezuelans have President Donald Trump to thank for establishing that.

The announcement that the Trump administration will run Venezuela for the time being needs to be put into its appropriate context. Jorge Rodriguez had a number of meetings with Juan Gonzalez, when the Joe Biden administration tried to have some kind of an entente with Maduro. Expected returns never materialised, but the core of negotiations (lifting of sanctions for free and fair elections) has not changed since. What changed was that Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez betrayed Maduro and agreed to become President Trump's puppets. Nobody else within Chavismo could’ve taken that role. Diosdado Cabello simply doesn’t have the reach, ability and network, in fact, it could be argued that he is below the Rodriguez siblings in the pecking order. Military leaders, such as Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, aren't capable to drive any transition under President Trump's orders. Thus, the negotiated solution to the Venezuela problem was never going to be a clean break and a replacement of one of set of high chavista officials for opposition counterparts, for there isn't a clearly defined set of opposition leaders today that can actually replace power at the top.

In the period of transition that started yesterday, the Rodriguez siblings are going to have to deliver many more heads. That might make their work that bit more difficult, however it is unlikely that, at this juncture, any Chavista is seriously considering taking up arms after yesterday’s display. Reports that the CIA was gathering intel in Caracas since August last year, and creating a map of Maduro's movements, security detail, and sleeping arrangements -with help from someone from Maduro's inner circle- makes abundantly clear that Chavismo is but a nest of vipers, wherein everyone has everyone else in check and, ultimately, everyone is ready to betray everyone else for the right price. President Trump's and Marco Rubio's statements about running Venezuela with Delcy Rodriguez left no doubt as to where loyalties lay.

At some point in the not too distant future fresh elections will be organised. A new electoral authority will have to be appointed and it is unlikely that Jorge Rodriguez will dare manipulate results as customary. When that happens, it will be down to us Venezuelans to choose who will run our country. Almost every other aspect, from suggested arrival of American oil companies to revitalise PDVSA to illegal disqualification of opposition politicians will have to be appraised through that prism. Everything can and will only be temporal. We must understand that a peaceful transition, from an established criminal organisation running a country, does not happen overnight, is not easy and it doesn’t come without what seem as unpalatable items. Venezuela needs everything done at this point: from courts to law enforcement, military, armed forces and institutions, all of it needs profound and structural changes that will take a long time, constant supervision and robust legal frameworks. It will be down to organised society and political parties to undo the damage, extent of which nobody knows for certain right now.

A lot of positives could be taken from yesterday's action:

- there's no occupying force, no troops were left behind to subject us to that indignity. They came, they snatched, and what they left behind was as clear a demonstration as anyone ever needed of the formidable might and surgical precision of the U.S. military;

- Chavismo, and the alleged protection it had from China, Russia and Iran, can no longer claim they're a force to be reckoned with. Beyond empty rhetoric, absolutely nobody came to Maduro's rescue, nobody took arms for him, acting President Delcy Rodriguez's claims of a "perfect fusion" between people, armed forces and law enforcement "ready to defend the motherland" are meaningless threats. It took Uncle Sam less than two hours and not a single loss to neutralise Maduro's regime;

- Regional fans, such as Lula and Petro, will think twice before lending more support to Chavismo;

- Cuba, ah, parasitic Cuba... Fidel Castro's heirs will have to go looking for a new source of endless and free funds. Venezuela will never become Cuba 2.0;

- Remember: Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez betrayed Maduro and along Diosdado Cabello agreed to become President Trump's puppets. Just remember that;

- With Chavismo, there was not a single chance of economic recovery. None whatsoever. Whenever American companies return, however much investment in the oil sector is earmarked, once legal framework becomes clearer under the shadow of Uncle Sam, opportunities that didn’t exist will materialise. Venezuelan entrepreneurship got another lease of life, and once unleashed boom times will return;

- Chavismo, in its new iteration, will have to adapt to the new reality or perish. Our take is that after what they've done very few Venezuelans will ever lend support again. It won't become Mexico's PRI, or Argentina's Peronismo, and it certainly can forget dreams of reenacting lifelong dictatorships like Daniel Ortega's or Fidel Castro's.

We remain hopeful. We know it might take a generation, or more, but at the very least we've reached the beginning of the end to Chavismo. We owe it to future generations to not miss the bigger picture for little squabbles of no consequence. A bright and promising future is ahead for all of us, and we must rejoice. We wanted this and now we have it, thanks to President Donald Trump.