The end of Kakistocracy in Venezuela can't come soon enough

Everyone involved with this site has been following Venezuelan politics for two to four decades, some even since the time Romulo Betancourt imposed his doctrine of non-alignment with dictatorships. Chavismo turned Venezuela into what Betancourt despised, but it did so in ways that nobody could foresee. It isn't about Hugo Chavez volunteering to become a pawn of Fidel Castro, surrendering Venezuela's sovereignty and matters of strategic and national security to the impoverished Cuban dictatorship. It isn't about Chavismo's eagerness to establish partnerships with, ultimately, the enemies of democracy (from Putin to Gaddafi, al-Assad, etc.). Nobody could have imagined that Colombian narcoguerrillas would not only be invited to join Chavismo's confederacy of criminal gangs, but given financial and military support, plus vast chunks of Venezuela's geography, to carry out their "business". Nobody could have imagined that ETA terrorists would end up using Chavismo's land grab to exact indiscriminate revenge against innocent farmers of Spanish origin. No crystal ball predicted that Islamic Fundamentalists and their long reign of terror could oxygenate and educate a regime determined to cling to power in Venezuela. Chavismo dragged Venezuela from Kleptocracy into an uncontrollable Kakistocracy whose end can't come soon enough.

It is going to take more than a naval blockade or seizing loaded dark fleet vessels. While these actions are completely legal and legitimate and hurt to an extent, it will take a very long time for Chavismo to keel over it. Seizing ships in the Caribbean is like shooting fish in a barrel, but toppling Nicolas Maduro will happen only when guarantees represent the better alternative. Cilia Flores de Maduro is one of the keys. An acceptable offer to her would have to look like amnesty for one of the largest nepotistic networks, formed by several dozen family members that she has been placing around carefully for many years. Therefore a negotiated exit with Cilia looks unlikely.

Jorge and Delcy Rodriguez are, in most analysts' opinions, incapable of capitulation. Neither knows a life without the sheer hatred and resentment caused by the killing in 1976 of their terrorist father. The Rodriguez psychopathic siblings exert enormous influence and power within Chavismo. Separate negotiations must take place with them.

Then, there's Diosdado Cabello, the only one with true ascendancy in the military. It would be a mistake to conflate willingness to engage in conflict among rank and file with preparedness of top echelon, formed by more than 2,000 generals many of whom involved in drug trafficking (Cartel de los Soles). The most recent example of where Venezuelan army's loyalties lie was the presidential election of July 2024, when the movement led by Maria Corina Machado managed to obtain and post online physical evidence of vote counts in over 85% of voting centers nationwide. Such feat, for which Machado was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, could never have happened had it not been for the active participation of the vast majority of rank and file members of the Venezuelan army (in Venezuela, nationwide elections are overseen and carried out under the army's control and watch).

The Trump administration can continue sending American or Brazilian negotiators, but it remains unlikely that said emissaries will ever come back with a unified message of surrender due to the impossibility of sitting down with the many uncontrollable criminal elements under the Chavista umbrella. This site has argued for a very long time that sanctions must be all encompassing and include secondary sanctions to any and all helping Chavismo stay afloat. That has to go beyond arresting bolichicos in London or hitting the Rodriguez siblings's man in Spain (see also here).

The U.S. has many tools in its box that are easier and cheaper to use than actually putting boots on the ground, but as surprised as we are with the latest developments we remain sceptical of Donald Trump's willingness to carry the mission through. Replacing a Kakistocracy with democracy is a task that will probably outlive everyone involved.